Making Betting Tips Count
Never get influenced by impressive winning percentages
In majority of cases, the numbers provided in the betting tips industry are not so accurate. It’s very easy for the sellers to create illusions by using obscure winning percentages. In fact, if you look closely you’ll realise that the betting tips industry is in fact a living example of how people can be tricked by creating all sorts of illusions of 50/50 handicappers, by using various situational winning percentages. Many tipsters in fact just make up such percentages, and their documentation is also often not so authentic.
Others focus only on the happenings during the hottest parts of their runs, after having witnessed the expected highs and lows of the gambling field. Handicappers boasting of their 50/50 picks are normally talking about short stretches, which is completely possible owing to the laws of probability. They strategically tell you only about the good runs, and ignore bad runs which may have brought them back to square one.
Then there are betting tipsters who form special clubs that provide different selection sets (normally focused on categories of high rollers, serious bettors and recreational bettors). They only focus on and market the returns from most successful of those clubs. So, while a 50/50 handicappers are may have a 70 / 30 score in one club, he’d have 30 / 70 in another. It’s anyone’s guess which one are you going to hear about?!
Go online and you can find many such groups instantly. In fact, a large number of betting tipsters have created a sort of corporate umbrella, aggressively advertising only their most recent and hottest handicappers. So, if from a group of many 50/50 handicappers, a few had a winning week, it is only them that you’re going to learn about. All they’re going to do is focus on the hot pics of just one guy, or just one hot club. Everything eventually regresses back to square one.
Why do you think that happens? Because that’s how things work. There are too many punters out there who demand such shiny winning percentages. They may not pay until they hear about such high numbers. As a result, betting tips providers give in to their demands and resort to using such strategies. Doing so works against the serious sports bettors who’re trying to figure out the legitimate providers, as they don’t have easy access to clean data that they can apply their analytical skills to.
In case you are really keen on working a betting tips provider, ensure his results are disclosed comprehensively. You should evaluate a good sample size comprising of a few hundred selections, enabling you to account for both the lows and the highs. Transparency is of utmost importance here.
Content is king
Many so-called betting tips providers expose their weaknesses when they’re pressured to talk about an actual game. You’ll find them to be experts at the art of persuasion, how they sell themselves and make you pay, but they don’t have much idea when it comes to handicapping sports events. Their analytical skills are very poor to say the least. You’ll find a large number of tipsters posting content on to their websites and making online videos. Just use your analytical skills and figure out if they’re good enough or not.
Pay attention to what they’re talking about. Is it about the nuts and bolts of how player/team’s win or lose games on the match days? Or are they simply talking about the big picture, generic trends which have hardly anything to do with the intricacies of the sports betting and actual gameplay?
Do they have enough knowledge about the skill sets of teams/players and how they fare against each other? Or are they simply using obscure phrases like “choking under pressure”, “rising to the occasion” which are nothing more but fillers used to hide incapabilities.
Or are they actually talking strategy? You’d need to figure out if they are simply trying to create an illusion of insight, trying to impress as many people as possible? Is a provider realistically talking about the number of ways match could go? Or is he simply using aggressive salesman terms just to divert your attention?
You must figure out if the so-called betting tipster really knows the nuances of value betting. You’d need to analyse their presentations. Better still, get on the phone and talk to that person directly. Once you have spoken to a few of them, you’d know how to separate gems from the haystack.
Keep in mind that the real success stories come from softer markets
If you look closely you’ll realise that it’s pretty difficult to consistently outsmart the odds in high volume and mature markets. The opening lines in these markets are pretty strong. Then, the smart punters bet on the right spot as quickly as possible. This doesn’t mean that the closing lines are unbeatable. However, your profitability will get very limited if you don’t get ahead of the marketplace quickly. What more, your profitability may turn out to be next to nothing if you’re also paying a steep subscription fee for such betting tips.
Tipsters who tell you that they’re seasoned experts at beating the market, regardless of whether the sharps have bet yet or not must be looked at sceptically.
On the other hand, if you come across a tipster who passes all the litmus tests, has some legitimate skills, and focuses only on one particular sport and one particular betting market, or perhaps bets only on the top leagues in a particular country, which he has been following throughout his life, that kind of tipsters would be far more believable and realistic.